The U.S. dollar is again under pressure against major currencies, as a stabilizing economy would increase inflation threats and reinforce the long term bear cycle that started in 2001. In effect, crude oil might be bottoming at current levels, while the European Central Bank (ECB) could now adopt a ¡§wait and see¡¨ policy on rates.



A tentative bottom in action for the U.S. economy

After having plunged for many months, growth appears to have found a bottom in the United States. Some banks are beginning to lower credit standards on businesses and commercial real estate loans, as few key indicators start the manifest a slight better picture. A milder scenario might anticipate a tentative stabilization for the U.S. economy that must be confirmed over the course of the year. The real estate market is leading the way, but other sectors are beginning the move. For the second consecutive month, pending home sales rose in March 3.2%, as construction spending moved up 0.3% for the first time in five straight months. In effect, despite staying below the benchmark of 50 for the fifth straight month, the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to the highest level since October of last year and reached 43.7 in April (40.0 expected) from 42.2 in March. New orders climbed to 47, while employment moved up to 37 from 32.3.